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Nick Gillett: Predictions for 2025 following a turbulent year for spirits

Category trends

Let’s start with something warm and fuzzy before I start wallowing in the proverbial doom and gloom. Last year was a great year for tequila and rum, and I don’t think that is going to change much next year.

In US markets, tequila might begin to see a bit of a shake-up, but here in the UK and Europe we’re a good few years behind so I expect to see more diversification in the category – perhaps to flavoured varieties and more adoption of mezcals?

• Read more: Beyond the duty easement

When it comes to rum, I’m never done waxing lyrical about its popularity. It shares that omniscient popularity that vodka has, except (for the most part) producers are being a lot more creative and doing interesting things with it – which makes it an engaging category for consumers and the trade alike.

The third success story of the year has to be low and no-alcohol liquids – although I’m expecting to see a ratification of the category next year as a few of the lesser quality liquids (come on – there are a few that simply taste bad) fall out of the market.

World whisky is gaining traction across the trade especially, and vodka continues to dominate – although I think as a category it could attempt to be a bit more interesting. We’re seeing a few of the many, many flavoured gins out there fall out of favour, as people opt for traditional, sophisticated variants like London Dry. And across liqueurs Limoncello is winning as an increasingly popular option for spritz and neat enjoyment all year round.

In cocktails we’re seeing the slightest of slowings in Martini varieties like Espresso and Pornstar, and wild uptake of Margaritas and Palomas which I expect to remain incredibly popular well into next year – so long as the movers and shakers of the on-trade don’t shift their focus onto something new!

Wider trends

Aside from the categories themselves, there are a number of other trends I’m expecting to see – largely driven by consumer behaviour. Moderation continues to be practiced more and more frequently, and as a result lower abv spirits are gaining popularity. I reckon next year we might see an uptake of more low-abv spirits, spirits like Sake which come in at 15-16% and mix similarly to other white spirits.

I reckon we’ll also see people in certain regions continue to support their local distilleries – especially in countries like Scotland and in places like Cornwall, where the landscape is so integral to the spirits being produced.

The on-trade will continue to be the driving force behind what’s hot and what’s not. And although it’s sad to say that many venues are likely to be forced to close their doors this year, those that survive will have a role to play in encouraging customers to explore categories and try new liquids. Last year was a bumper one for major events, competitions, sporting events – and in each case we did what the British did best, celebrated with a tipple. More of that this year would give the on trade more opportunities to get customers back in venue – and that would be good for us all!

Finally, I think we’ll see more and more producers themselves championing sustainable practices, not just to satisfy demand, but because it’s the right thing to do. We know that many customers are beginning to prioritse different things in their choice of brand, like environmental creds, social conscience and clarity of production and ingredients, and we want to satisfy these conscious consumers with excellent options, from high-quality producers. Although how much of this brands can manage will be inhibited by the cold hard commercials, as our margins across the board are likely to be squeezed once more in 2025.

Ever the optimist

So, there are the highs – the trends that will top the charts this year. But what about the lows? Well, much like any other year there are a few stinkers lined up for both the spirit and hospitality industries, courtesy of the government.

Starting with spirits, we know from last year’s Budget that we’re going to see duty rise in line with inflation, and with the way things are going, that could be some size of hike. Businesses have also had their outgoings increased with rising employment costs, energy costs and increased cost of living affecting the disposable income that consumers use to buy booze. Hospitality is similarly affected, with the added punch to the gut that is the reduction of the rates relief the sector has enjoyed since Covid – and still so desperately needs.

But the one thing about our sector is that we are resilient. We’ve proven time and time again that we are creative, adaptable and willing to put a shift in to succeed. And whilst I think we’ll see some casualties next year across brands and venues alike, we will ultimately pull through.

At Mangrove, I really do get to see the very best of independent business – in our portfolio of brands, and partner venues. On a daily basis I work with passion-driven people, many of them pioneers in their own right, offering exceptional quality, from the liquids on offer in bottles through to experiences delivered in-venue. That’s what’s amazing about these industries and that’s what will pull us through the rollercoaster year of 2025. So, in a parting word of wisdom I take inspiration from the humble pint of Guiness, remember: “Good things come to those who wait.”

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