Italian wine braces for €317mn loss despite tariff deal

By Hamish Graham

Published: 28 July, 2025

Projections from Unione Italiana Vini (UIV) show that the Italian wine sector could lose over €317mn over the next 12 months due to the 15% tariff on EU exports to the US.

Set to be implemented from 1 August, the 15% levy was agreed upon after a meeting in Scotland between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Further analysis from UIV showed that a €5 bottle of Italian wine could now retail for upwards of $15 in the US, representing a 186% winery-to-shelf markup, thanks to the combined impact of the new tariff and a weak US dollar. The trade body predicts the same bottle of wine could now sell at $60 in on-trade settings in the US.

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Although the fresh levy’s impact will be felt across the European wine trade, it will be felt acutely in Italy due to the US’s primacy as an export market. In 2024, Italy exported €1.93bn worth of wine to the US, with this figure representing 24% of the country’s total wine exports.

Paolo Castelletti, UIV’s secretary general, bemoaned the tariffs potential impact.

He noted: “It’s hard to consider this agreement a success. Yes, 15% is better than the originally feared 30%, but it is still dramatically higher than the virtually zero tariffs in place before. Compared to other European wine-producing nations, Italy stands to suffer more.

“Not only is Italy more exposed to the U.S. market – accounting for 24% of total wine exports versus 20% for France and 11% for Spain – but our strength lies in the price-to-quality ratio. Around 80% of Italian wines fall within the ‘popular’ range, with an ex-cellar price of €4.2 per litre. Only 2% of our exports are in the super-premium segment.”

Lamberto Frescobaldi (pictured), President of UIV, added: “The meeting today in Scotland between Presidents Trump and von der Leyen has at least dispelled one of the uncertainties that had been weighing on the markets.

“Now, it’s crucial that the industry shares the burden along the supply chain to avoid fully passing the cost to the consumer.”

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