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Effects of limited Scottish restriction changes unveiled in new study

The independent study by BiGGAR Economics, commissioned by Diageo, found that the future of 1800 Scottish hospitality businesses and 32,500 workers could be secured by limited restriction changes. 

It stated that adjusting opening hours by around two and a half hours and allowing alcohol to be served under strictly controlled conditions would increase hospitality business turnover from £419m to £1.1bn; increasing the number of jobs supported from the current 28,300 to 60,800; and securing the viability of 1,816 businesses.

Moreover the study, which is endorsed by the Scottish Beer & Pub Association, the Scottish Licensed Trade Association and UK Hospitality Scotland, found that changes to restrictions would also transform the impact on public finances, turning a £261m fiscal cost of subsidy into a £63m positive tax contribution.

In addition, it said that a return to the stricter restrictions as seen up to 10 December, would cost thousands of jobs and come at a fiscal cost of £347m.

On the back of the findings, the trio of trade bodies has called on the Scottish government to urgently implement the changes to save businesses and jobs.

“The restrictions, as currently in place, have a disproportionate impact on the hospitality sector and is costing the Scottish economy millions of pounds. A relaxation, as has been suggested by the industry would give our sector a transformative boost and help support business in the crucial recover period,” said director of UK Hospitality-Scotland, Wille MacLeod. 

CEO of the Scottish Beer & Pub Association, Emma McClarkin, added: “This economic impact study shows that relatively minor changes to opening hours and allowing businesses to serve alcohol responsibly, would transform the commercial viability of the sector.”

In 2019, prior to the global pandemic, Scotland’s hospitality industry contributed £1.8bn Gross Value Added (GVA, a measure of economic output) to Scotland’s economy, with the sector also supporting 83,400 jobs, and was associated with £812 million in tax revenues, according to the research.