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IWSR: 'Wine and beer unlikely to regain volumes for several years'

Within wine, sparkling volume consumption is anticipated to recover to 2019 levels by 2023, according to the research which, based on how the pandemic has unfolded in 2020 so far, assesses the outlook for the global 'beverage' alcohol industry.  

‘Premium-and-above’ (bottles retailing for £9 or more)Prosecco is expected to be least impacted by Covid, with ‘premium-and-above’ still wine forecasted to recover lost volumes by 2022, the mid-year assessment suggested.

Total volume consumption of international spirits (which excludes national spirits such as shochu and baijiu), is projected to be down 7.2% in 2020, but is however set to recover in full by 2022. 

Within spirits, Canadian whisky and US whiskey are the only categories expected to grow in volume consumption in 2020. US whiskey will also be one of the most resilient spirits through to 2024, along with Cognac/Armagnac, agave-based spirits, Irish whiskey and Japanese whisky, the research showed. 

No-alcohol spirits will grow at a slightly slower pace, hampered by the absence of a fully functioning on-premise channel in 2020, seen as key to bringing the category closer to consumers.

Low-and-no alcohol beer was pinpointed as a “bright spot for the category”, with the sector expected to “remain resilient” through to 2024, with a volume CAGR of 5.9% (2019-2024), as moderation and wellness trends continue to resonate with consumers. 

Overall, on a global scale, the research suggested that ‘beverage’ alcohol would perform better in 2020 than initially projected, but also pointed to a “slow long-term recovery”. 

‘Beverage’ alcohol in IWSR’s 19 focus countries (see below) is projected to decline by 8% in 2020, rather than by the double-digit losses originally expected – an "encouraging" projection given the "incredibly tough measures" the industry continued to face due to Covid-19, said Mark Meek, CEO of IWSR.

“Excluding national spirits such as baijiu and shochu, total ‘beverage’ alcohol in the 19 focus countries will recover to 2019 levels by 2024. We may see that recover even faster now, given the recent news on encouraging vaccine trials,” he said. 

The rise of ecommerce and the efforts by retailers and on-premise operators to adapt to the crisis, coupled with consumers expanding to new occasions, created a “dynamic, albeit challenging, new environment for ‘beverage’ alcohol”, he added.

As part of the research, IWSR reviewed beverage alcohol consumption in 19 key global markets, and the global travel retail channel, with the key markets reviewed Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, the UK and the US.